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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?

Probability

39¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$11.92

Liquidity

$275.02

Probability (last 7 days)

+16.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:49
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 20.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 104.2h

    LOW
  • 15:49Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 21.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 29.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 29¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 30.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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