Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?
Probability
39¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$11.92
Liquidity
$275.02
Probability (last 7 days)
+16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 104.2h
- 15:49SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 38¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 40¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 40¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 40¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 40¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 41¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 41¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 41¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 41¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 40¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 40¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 41¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 42¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 38¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.0pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).