Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in April?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+5.5pp
24h Vol
$208.57
Liquidity
$634.71
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 112.9h
- 07:08SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 113h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:08PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.7pp
to 12¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.3pp
to 16¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.1pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (21.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).