Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Probability
56¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-17.0pp
24h Vol
$313.41
Liquidity
$326.77
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 17pp over 24h
Now 56¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 31.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 14775.6h
- 13:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 56¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 56¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 56¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 61¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 57¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 62¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 62¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 62¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 62¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 63¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 62¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 62¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 80¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 74¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 75¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 74¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 75¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 75¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 75¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 75¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 76¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 77¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 75¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if o1 officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).