Will Paul Hounkpè be the next President of Benin?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$8.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $8.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:04SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Benin on 12 April 2026, with a potential runoff to be held within 15 days if no candidate secures an absolute majority. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally declared elected as President of Benin following the 2026 presidential election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected as President of Benin following the 2026 presidential election. Any acting, interim, or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such President is elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Benin and the relevant electoral authorities of Benin, including the Autonomous National Electoral Commission (https://www.cena.bj/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).