Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Probability
48¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$49.00
Liquidity
$8.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 48¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 385h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 385.1h
- 22:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 385h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.
Biggest hourly move: +3.5pp at 20:00 (to 48¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 22:00 · +3.5pp → 48¢
- 21:00 · +3.5pp → 48¢
- 20:00 · +3.5pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 95¢+2.5pp
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Geopolitics · Vol $115.35
- 43¢+0.5pp
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $20.81
- 56¢+1.0pp
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $35.00
- 14¢-2.0pp
Will San Marino advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $44.67
- 32¢+0.5pp
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 99¢+0.3pp
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $208.12
- 97¢-0.1pp
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 65¢-1.0pp
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Other · Vol $13.30
- 2¢+0.1pp
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Other · Vol $355.1K
- 4¢0.0pp
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Other · Vol $288.9K
- 0¢-1.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $279.9K
- 85¢-4.0pp
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Other · Vol $228.4K
- 1¢-7.8pp
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $227.1K
- 8¢+0.9pp
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Other · Vol $202.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.