EntertainmentExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.2pp

24h Vol

$412.91

Liquidity

$24.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
eurovision.tv
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.8pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
May 6, 2026, 07:00May 13, 2026, 06:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-13T06-56Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 65h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $24.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 65 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 65.1h

    HIGH
  • 06:56Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 65h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -3.1pp at 18:00 (to 0¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 23:00 · -3.0pp → 1¢
  • 18:00 · -3.1pp → 0¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventEurovision 2026: Top 3
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

eurovision

Reason

Question text contains "eurovision" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?"?

As of Wed, 13 May 2026 06:56:12 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$412.91 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $24.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket