Will Pope Leo XIV publish his encyclical by May 15?
Probability
22¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$396.02
Probability (last 7 days)
-15.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 22¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 455h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 31.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 455.4h
- 00:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 455h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.5pp at 2d ago (to 21¢).
Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -15.0pp → 22¢
- 08:00 · -15.0pp → 22¢
- 06:00 · -15.0pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · -16.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -15.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -17.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -15.5pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · -16.0pp → 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV publishes his encyclical by May 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For a letter to qualify it must be commonly understood as an encyclical or declared as an encyclical upon release. Other forms of papal brief, such as a papal bull, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be information from Pope Leo XIV, official information from the Catholic Church, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.