Will Porto qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?
Probability
98¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+6.0pp
24h Vol
$45.43
Liquidity
$310.36
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 6pp over 24h
Now 98¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $310 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 93¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 863.7h
Price movement
+6.0pp over the last 24h, now 98¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at 11:00 (to 98¢).
Show top 8 of 20 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +6.5pp → 98¢
- 20:00 · +6.6pp → 97¢
- 19:00 · +6.8pp → 97¢
- 17:00 · +6.7pp → 97¢
- 16:00 · +7.0pp → 98¢
- 15:00 · +6.7pp → 97¢
- 13:00 · +7.0pp → 98¢
- 11:00 · +7.0pp → 98¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Champions League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Champions League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Champions League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 Primeira Liga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Champions League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the Primeira Liga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.