Will Powell say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during April press conference?

• 01
  Volume pressure

  Light volume — move on a thin book

  Only $15.0k traded against $202.3k of visible liquidity (0.07× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 03
  Resolution proximity

  Past expiry — awaiting resolution

  Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

• 04
  UMA status

  UMA status: proposed

  An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on April 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If no such statement happens by April 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.