Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-president-trump-sign-less-than-5-pieces-of-legislation-into-law-in-may renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-president-trump-sign-less-than-5-pieces-of-legislation-into-law-in-may/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026

Creator

Will President Trump sign less than 5 pieces of legislation into law in May?

Probability

2¢

+0.1pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$130.30

Liquidity

$5.0K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official government information
Link
whitehouse.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-38.6pp 7d

2¢

May 23, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 29, 2026, 23:50 UTC

updated 06:17:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-30T06-17Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 18h.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $5.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 18 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Official government information
Link
whitehouse.gov
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

00:00Scheduled resolution
Market resolves in 17.7h
HIGH
06:17Signal
Resolution risk
Expires in 18h.
LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

Biggest hourly move: -58.9pp at May 28, 15:00 UTC (to 2¢).

Show top 8 of 69 hourly moves

May 28, 15:00 UTC · -58.9pp → 2¢
May 28, 12:00 UTC · -38.9pp → 2¢
May 28, 11:00 UTC · -36.9pp → 2¢
May 28, 08:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 3¢
May 28, 07:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 3¢
May 28, 00:00 UTC · -34.0pp → 7¢
May 27, 19:00 UTC · -34.5pp → 6¢
May 26, 03:00 UTC · +40.0pp → 61¢

updated 06:17:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 06:17:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventHow many pieces of legislation will Trump sign into law in May?

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between May 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will President Trump sign less than 5 pieces of legislation into law in May?"?

As of Sat, 30 May 2026 06:17:11 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -38.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$130.30 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket