Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
Probability
32¢
1h
+9.0pp
24h
+8.0pp
24h Vol
$61.51
Liquidity
$614.46
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 32¢; +9.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 14:36PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 32¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 23¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 23¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 23¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 23¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 23¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 23¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 23¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pump.fun launches a token and performs an airdrop by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Airdrops of NFTs will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is on-chain information and official information from Pump.fun, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).