Will RB Leipzig finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?
Probability
95¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-2.4pp
24h Vol
$22.52
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.7pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 95¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 778h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 778.0h
- 14:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 778h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 94¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 94¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.7pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 91¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 90¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 90¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 88¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 89¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 89¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Bundesliga tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).