Fumbling-Compress
0xe39b14a159e1100fe5b1cca204f8d85d2ab36ed1
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$99.14
Win rate
44%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins
11175 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
4850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.85
- YES
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 21?
877 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-32.57
- YES
Will Betis finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?
744 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
525 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-150.98
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 21?
467 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-32.66
- YES
Will Real Sociedad finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings?
391 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
365 shares @ 35.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-130.29
- YES
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
364 shares @ 71.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-260.30
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$28.64Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?$2.04Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.30Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$3.03Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?$3.10Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$3.45Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMCavaliers vs. Knicks$4.29Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Thunder$4.41Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Nantes win on 2026-05-17?$4.76Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.04May 27, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.39May 27, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.42May 27, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.46May 27, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.49May 26, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.52May 26, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.56May 26, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.56May 26, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBillionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?$0.15May 26, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 20, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran closes its airspace by May 31?$2.40May 19, 21:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 21:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 19:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.