Will Real Sociedad qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?
Probability
89¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+16.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$558.85
Probability (last 7 days)
+40.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 89¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3080h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3079.9h
- 16:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3080h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 89¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 88¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 89¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 89¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 89¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 88¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 89¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.0pp
to 89¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 88¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 90¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 89¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 87¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 88¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 74¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 75¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 75¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 70¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 77¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Europa League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 LaLiga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Europa League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or the LaLiga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).