Will Rihanna attend the Met Gala?
Probability
72¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$341.61
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 72¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 195h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 33.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 194.9h
- 21:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 195h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-18.0pp over the last 24h, now 72¢.
Biggest hourly move: +49.5pp at 12:00 (to 76¢).
Show all 3 hour-by-hour ticks
- 21:04 · -3.0pp → 72¢
- 14:00 · -3.0pp → 72¢
- 12:00 · +49.5pp → 76¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.