PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 18, 2026
Creator

Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Probability

76¢

1h

-2.5pp

24h

-3.0pp

24h Vol

$227.84

Liquidity

$4.4K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
wigan.gov.uk
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.0pp 7d
1007550250
76¢
Jun 6, 2026, 22:00 UTCJun 13, 2026, 21:48 UTC
updated 21:50:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-13T21-50Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 76¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $4.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 18, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 98.2h

    LOW

Price movement

-3.0pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.

Biggest hourly move: -6.5pp at 00:00 (to 79¢).

Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
  • 12:00 · -5.0pp → 79¢
  • 05:00 · -5.5pp → 79¢
  • 04:00 · -5.5pp → 79¢
  • 03:00 · -6.0pp → 79¢
  • 02:00 · -6.0pp → 79¢
  • 00:00 · -6.5pp → 79¢
  • Jun 12, 08:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 79¢
  • Jun 10, 11:00 UTC · +5.0pp → 86¢
updated 21:50:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 21:50:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventMakerfield by-election: 2nd Place
Category · Politics

Market Description

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

election

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?"?

As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 21:50:03 GMT, YES is priced at 76% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.0pp in the last 24 hours, -2.5pp in the last hour, and -3.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 18, 2026 (2026-06-18T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$227.84 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket