PoliticsExpires Jun 2, 2026

Will Ryan Tillman advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$20.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.4pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 05:00Apr 26, 2026, 01:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 1

    Thin liquidity

    Only $20.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 886.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will advance from the California Governor primary?
Category · Politics

Market Description

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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