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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Probability

1h

-0.7pp

24h

-2.1pp

24h Vol

$651.9K

Liquidity

$243.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.8pp 7d
Apr 17, 2026, 19:00Apr 24, 2026, 18:10
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1037.8h

    LOW
  • 18:10Signal

    Signal · Clustered NO flow

    25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.

    HIGH
  • 18:10Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1038h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 18:07Trade

    Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K

    @ 88¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.2pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.3pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.7pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.2pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.1pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.6pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.8pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.3pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.9pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

25
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
Resolution source
UMA status
n/a
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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