Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
-2.1pp
24h Vol
$651.9K
Liquidity
$243.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Without an Anthropic API key we show a heuristic summary derived from the market metrics.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1037.8h
- 18:10SignalHIGH
Signal · Clustered NO flow
25 trades ($5,882) aligned on NO across 22 wallets in the last 30 min.
- 18:10SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1038h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:07TradeMEDIUM
Motionless-Artifact · SELL YES $5.3K
@ 88¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 2¢
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to 4¢
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to 6¢
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to 6¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
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to 4¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 4¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
25- SELLUP3m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE3m ago
- BUYDOWN3m ago
- BUYDOWN3m ago
- BUYDOWN3m ago
- SELLYES3m ago
- BUYYES3m ago
- BUYDOWN3m ago
- BUYDOWN3m ago
- BUYDOWN3m ago
- BUYNATUS VINCERE3m ago
- BUYYES3m ago
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Market Description
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 7, 2026
- Resolution source
- UMA status
- n/a
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the market rules.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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