Will San Marino come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$15.51
Liquidity
$4.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 487h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 486.7h
- 17:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 487h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumeurovision.tv
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.