Will Satanic player have the highest Gold Per Minute at Esports World Cup 2026?
Probability
100¢
1h
+10.3pp
24h
+49.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+50.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Up 49pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +10.3pp in the last hour.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Satanic player have the highest Gold Per Minute at Esports World Cup 2026? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Satanic player have the highest Gold Per Minute at Esports World Cup 2026? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+49.3pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +40.0pp at Jul 19, 22:00 UTC (to 90¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- Jul 20, 00:00 UTC · +40.0pp → 90¢
- Jul 19, 23:00 UTC · +40.0pp → 90¢
- Jul 19, 22:00 UTC · +40.0pp → 90¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player with the highest gold per minute (GPM) across the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC) Dota 2 tournament, held July 7–19, 2026 in Paris, France. GPM is defined as a player's total gold earned divided by their total minutes played, aggregated across all of their qualifying games. Only completed official games count (group stage, survival/gauntlet stage, and playoffs). To qualify, a player must have played a minimum of 5 games; players below this threshold are not eligible, regardless of their GPM. If two or more eligible players are tied on GPM, the market resolves to the tied player with the higher total gold earned across the tournament; if still tied, the player whose team achieved the higher final tournament placement. If a player not individually listed as an outcome finishes with the highest qualifying GPM, or if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or not determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." The primary resolution source for this market will be Dotabuff (https://www.dotabuff.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Satanic player have the highest Gold Per Minute at Esports World Cup 2026?"?
As of Thu, 23 Jul 2026 22:00:17 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +49.3pp in the last 24 hours, +10.3pp in the last hour, and +50.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $430.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
4 walletsNone.