Will SBF's tweet storm be more than 22 tweets?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$100.02
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 22, 2022
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 22, 2022
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1591989554881658880?s=20&t=I88xL8vlc7EQ28ECMbH_EA
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will SBF's tweet storm be more than 22 tweets? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will SBF's tweet storm be more than 22 tweets? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:04SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
On November 14, 2022, the former CEO of imploded crypto exchange FTX Sam Bankman-Fried began a cryptic tweet storm with "1) What", continuing with a cryptic string of letters and numbers that has resolved into him talking about his plans for the future. You can find the beginning of the specified tweet storm here: https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1591989554881658880?s=20&t=I88xL8vlc7EQ28ECMbH_EA This market will resolve to "Yes" if SBF's tweet storm starting with the tweet above is 23 tweets or longer by November 22, 2022, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that only tweets which are replies in the specified thread will count; separate tweets will not be considered. This market may resolve immediately to "Yes" as soon as there are 23 or more tweets in the thread. If this thread does not reach 23 tweets or more by November 22, 12:00:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If SBF deletes tweets in his tweet storm before the threshold is reached, the number of non-deleted tweets in the thread on November 22 at 12:00:00 PM ET will be used to resolve the market. The primary resolution source for this market is SBF's verified Twitter account (https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/), specifically the above-specified thread (https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1591989554881658880?s=20&t=I88xL8vlc7EQ28ECMbH_EA), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the URL of SBF's verified Twitter account changes before the resolution of this question, whichever URL the above-specified twitter thread moves to will be the valid resolution source for this market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will SBF's tweet storm be more than 22 tweets?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 16:04:00 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Nov 22, 2022 (2022-11-22T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1591989554881658880?s=20&t=I88xL8vlc7EQ28ECMbH_EA.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1591989554881658880?s=20&t=I88xL8vlc7EQ28ECMbH_EA. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $100.02. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
2 walletsNone.
- 0x1d36…ad08842.9K
- 0x8c2f…64fa2