Will SC Paderborn achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026-27 season?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$4.5K
Liquidity
$2.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 41¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 619.7h
Price movement
+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: -39.5pp at 1d ago (to 20¢).
Show top 8 of 36 hourly moves
- 02:00 · -24.0pp → 41¢
- 01:00 · -32.0pp → 41¢
- 00:00 · -32.0pp → 43¢
- 15:00 · -36.5pp → 28¢
- 14:00 · -33.0pp → 32¢
- 12:00 · -27.5pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · -39.5pp → 20¢
- 3d ago · +28.5pp → 86¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundesliga for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the current league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in the Bundesliga for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the Bundesliga 2, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2. If the 2025-26 Bundesliga 2 season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will “No”. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial Bundesliga dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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