UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Seoul have between 140-150mm of precipitation in June?

Probability

26¢

1h

+3.0pp

24h

-15.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$98.76

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in June, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's informat
Link
data.kma.go.kr
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (46.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
26¢
May 27, 2026, 21:00 UTCJun 1, 2026, 11:05 UTC
updated 11:05:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-01T11-05Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 15pp over 24h

    Now 26¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 46.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 684.9h

    LOW
  • 11:05Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-15.0pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.

Biggest hourly move: +28.0pp at May 30, 18:00 UTC (to 41¢).

Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
  • 18:00 · +25.0pp → 41¢
  • May 31, 11:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 42¢
  • May 31, 09:00 UTC · +27.0pp → 42¢
  • May 31, 04:00 UTC · +25.0pp → 41¢
  • May 31, 03:00 UTC · +26.5pp → 41¢
  • May 30, 19:00 UTC · +25.5pp → 38¢
  • May 30, 18:00 UTC · +28.0pp → 41¢
  • May 30, 17:00 UTC · +27.5pp → 43¢
updated 11:05:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 11:05:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventPrecipitation in Seoul in June?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in June, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of June at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of June 2026. If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Seoul have between 140-150mm of precipitation in June?"?

As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 11:05:41 GMT, YES is priced at 26% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -15.0pp in the last 24 hours, +3.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.03. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $98.76. Spread between best bid and best ask: 46.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

3 wallets
Open on Polymarket