Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?
Probability
53¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+23.5pp
24h Vol
$249.24
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 24pp over 24h
Now 53¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.2h
- 13:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:45PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 36.0pp
to 53¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 51¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 39.0pp
to 54¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 34.0pp
to 53¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 52¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.0pp
to 52¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 38.5pp
to 57¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 35¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 25¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 26¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 26¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 26¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 34¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 33¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 41¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in April, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul". If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).