Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?
Probability
14¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+1.6pp
24h Vol
$82.93
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-23.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 116.8h
- 03:10SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 117h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 12¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 15¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.4pp
to 11¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 14¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 12¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.1pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.4pp
to 15¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.4pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.6pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.8pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.1pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -77.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -54.4pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -58.3pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -55.6pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -56.8pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -54.3pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -59.4pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -58.9pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -60.4pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -42.8pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.7pp
to 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
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Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?
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Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in April?
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Will SpaceX have exactly 14 launches in April?
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Will SpaceX have exactly 15 launches in April?
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Will SpaceX have exactly 16 launches in April?
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- 0¢-0.1pp
Will SpaceX have 17 or more launches in April?
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).