Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?
Probability
52¢
1h
-9.5pp
24h
-11.5pp
24h Vol
$160.00
Liquidity
$1.6K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 52¢; -9.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 57¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 731.7h
Price movement
-11.5pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.
Biggest hourly move: +27.0pp at 12:00 (to 78¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +27.0pp → 78¢
- 1d ago · +21.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +21.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +21.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +21.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +21.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +21.0pp → 75¢
- 1d ago · +23.5pp → 75¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during May 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Alerts
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