Thunderous-Acid
0xa0dd0519b051ee920637e26147b7676fed591b9b
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$833.27
Total PnL
$-33.3K
Realised
$-147.79
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
256 shares @ 75.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$225.54
$33.32
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 74.9¢·now 78.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$157.70
$7.90
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
119 shares @ 31.9¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$89.84
$51.85
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
100 shares @ 51.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$88.00
$37.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
210 shares @ 8.2¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$44.41
$27.22
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 6.1¢·now 21.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$42.30
$30.10
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
128 shares @ 20.2¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.45
$12.51
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
100 shares @ 33.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.50
$-9.50
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
60 shares @ 27.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.30
$2.10
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
100 shares @ 30.3¢·now 14.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.85
$-15.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$1.28Jul 25, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$149.80Jul 25, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in July?$0.45Jul 24, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$219.45Jul 23, 11:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$300.00Jul 21, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.44Jul 19, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$0.55Jul 19, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$8.00Jul 19, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$10.00Jul 19, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$42.00Jul 17, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $670 in July?$0.23Jul 17, 08:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$100.00Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in July?$1.13Jul 15, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in July?$6.10Jul 15, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in July?$3.67Jul 15, 09:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?$300.00Jul 14, 02:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $11.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 14:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 17:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.