SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026
Creator

Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Probability

6¢

1h

+0.4pp

24h

-0.9pp

24h Vol

$66.18

Liquidity

$17.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
elections.am
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.8pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 6, 2026, 09:00May 13, 2026, 08:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-13T08-13Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $17.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 591.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: +3.2pp at 4d ago (to 5¢).

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventArmenia Parliamentary Election Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election. If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lec

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lec" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?"?

As of Wed, 13 May 2026 08:13:28 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +3.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 7, 2026 (2026-06-07T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$66.18 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

19 wallets
Open on Polymarket