Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.00
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 1, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimarySupreme CourtTypeCourt recordConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.3pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 1, 2025
- UMA status
- resolved
- Resolution source
- PrimarySupreme CourtTypeCourt recordConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary court record and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Supreme Court
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary court record and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowRecent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel are running for a 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court on April 1, 2025. This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory for Susan Crawford. For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Susan Crawford and the candidate that receives second-most votes. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receive by the sum of all votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If Susan Crawford does not win the most votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based off the official vote count once Wisconsin has certified the vote for this race. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
PoliticsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Politics".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 16:15:53 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 1, 2025 (2025-04-01T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $510.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.