Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.65B?
Probability
41¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$17.61
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materialsTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (76.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 76.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materialsTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (76.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 21, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 166.4h
- 17:37SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 72¢+17.0
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians
Sports · Vol $1.3M
- 100¢+68.5
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Sports · Vol $1.3M
- 48¢-1.0
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14?
Sports · Vol $542.1K
- 17¢-26.0
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?
Sports · Vol $527.0K
- 1¢-0.1
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Sports · Vol $515.4K
- 0¢-40.9
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $490.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Take-Two's net bookings for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Take-Two's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
kingsReason
Question text contains "kings" — matched the Sports keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.65B?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 17:37:50 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.61. Spread between best bid and best ask: 76.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.