Will Taylor Swift attend the Met Gala?
Probability
38¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.04
Liquidity
$217.47
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 192h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 68.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 191.6h
- 00:22SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 192h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 38¢.
Biggest hourly move: +7.0pp at 2d ago (to 36¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +3.0pp → 39¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · +6.0pp → 37¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 37¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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