BusinessExpires Jun 30, 2026

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Probability

9¢

+0.0pp

24h

-5.0pp

24h Vol

$248.95

Liquidity

$3.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 01:43

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 1582.3h
LOW
01:43Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1582h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
01:43Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -6.5pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability down -8.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -8.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -8.5pp
to 9¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 16¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 6.5pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 8.0pp
to 18¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 18¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 9.0pp
to 18¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Jun 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket