Alarming-Task
0x29506eba1ffcf4f02ffffcfd2ee5f1ecb961ffea
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$650.72
Total PnL
$-216.42
Realised
$-111.06
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
155 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$155.00
$44.95
- NO
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
209 shares @ 15.8¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$112.86
$79.90
- YES
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
569 shares @ 74.1¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$96.73
$-324.90
- NO
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
110 shares @ 19.6¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$91.30
$69.78
- NO
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
94 shares @ 82.9¢·now 88.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$83.47
$5.54
- NO
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
85 shares @ 74.0¢·now 93.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.81
$16.74
- NO
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
17 shares @ 82.0¢·now 88.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.10
$1.16
- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
12 shares @ 87.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.86
$0.42
- NO
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 16.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.36
$2.72
- YES
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
9 shares @ 20.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.03
$-0.76
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?$0.59Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMNancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in February 2026 (ET)?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Biden Crime Family" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$29.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMRobinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026$49.06Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-08?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?$75.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?$80.00Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 02:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 02:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.