Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliamentary election by between 6% and 9%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two political parties in the election for the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad). For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place parties. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If the two listed parties receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the party whose listed abbreviation comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by October 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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