Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-bank-of-new-zealand-make-no-change-to-the-official-cash-rate-after-the-february-decision renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-bank-of-new-zealand-make-no-change-to-the-official-cash-rate-after-the-february-decision/markdown.

UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Feb 17, 2026Closed

Creator

Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the February decision?

Probability

100¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved YES

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED YES

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Feb 17, 2026
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
@hierarchicalz95
Link
rbnz.govt.nz
Type
Social media post
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.9pp 7d

No price history available

updated 10:57:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T10-57Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Feb 17, 2026
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
@hierarchicalz95
Link
rbnz.govt.nz
Type
Social media post
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification brief

officially resolved

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary social media post source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: @hierarchicalz95

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the February decision? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary social media post source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the February decision? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.

updated 10:57:01 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 10:57:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s February monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its February 17, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their February 17, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Why this category?

confidence: low

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the February decision?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:57:01 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Feb 17, 2026 (2026-02-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $45.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

10 wallets

YES

None.

Open on Polymarket