Will the Bill Ackman Index have the best performance for the week of January 5?

• 01
  Price move

  Up 13pp over 24h

  Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve according to the index that performs best for the week beginning January 5, 2026, among the Warren Buffett Index, the Bill Ackman Index, and the S&P 500. The performance of each index will be the 1-week trailing percentage return of each index for the final trading day of the specified week. The index with the best percentage return will be deemed the winner. The resolution source for the Warren Buffett Index ("Buffett") is https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559450392165007360 The resolution source for the Bill Ackman Index ("Ackman") is: https://web.dubapp.com/portfolios/index/559452008356167680 Information from the "Performance" tables for the Warren Buffett Index and the Bill Ackman Index, specifically the 1-week trailing percentage return figures found under "1W", will be used to resolve this market, once information is finalized for the final day of the specified week. The resolution source for S&P 500 ("SPX") is: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices Information from the "Historical Prices" table will be used to resolve this market, specifically the 1-week trailing percentage return calculated as the percentage change between the closing price for the final trading day of the specified week and the closing price for the corresponding day of the previous week (e.g. if the final trading day of the specified week is a Thursday, the closing price of the previous Thursday will be used to calculate the 1-week trailing percentage return). Note that all relevant figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If multiple indices perform exactly the same over this market’s timeframe, this market will resolve according to the Index whose abbreviation comes first, as listed in this market group. If the specified indices do not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve to “Other”. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price or 1-week trailing percentage return figure published for each relevant index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If any of the relevant days lack a specified closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), this market will use the last valid historical price offered by the specified resolution sources as the effective closing price for that day. If the Warren Buffett Index or the Bill Ackman Index’s 1-week trailing percentage return figure for the last trading day of the specified week is not published by the time that the figure for the first trading day of the next week is published, this market will resolve based on the most recent 1-week trailing percentage return figure published by the specified resolution source for a day prior to the last trading day of the specified week. Updates to historical prices or figures displayed by any of the indices subsequent to this market's resolution will not be considered. This market will resolve according to the methodologies utilized by the specified indices as of the resolution time of this market, regardless of whether those methodologies are later updated.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.