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EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 4, 2026

Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?

Probability

22¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-14.0pp

24h Vol

$1.2K

Liquidity

$5.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 14pp over 24h

    Now 22¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 27¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 213.1h

    LOW
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 23.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 23.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 26.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 24.5pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 28.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 28.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 26.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 25.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to how much "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Ambiguous wording
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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