Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?
Probability
80¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.9pp
24h Vol
$569.65
Liquidity
$15.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+13.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 01:43SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.8pp
to 81¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.7pp
to 81¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 80¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 80¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.9pp
to 80¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 80¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.4pp
to 78¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.8pp
to 78¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.8pp
to 78¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.8pp
to 78¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.8pp
to 78¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.9pp
to 78¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.8pp
to 78¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.1pp
to 78¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 24.1pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.6pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 78¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 78¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.4pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 80¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026 lasts for at least the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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