Loading shell…
EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 1, 2026

Will "The Great Divide" - Noah Kahan debut week album sales be less than 125k?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.6pp

24h Vol

$248.12

Liquidity

$1.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:56
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 130h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 130.1h

    LOW
  • 13:56Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 130h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.4pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.9pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -25.1pp

    to 3¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Noah Kahan's new album 'The Great Divide' is scheduled to be released on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'The Great Divide' has not been released by May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the debut week sales for Noah Kahan's album 'The Great Divide', according to Hits Daily DoubleAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).