Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 10 and 12 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Probability
25¢
1h
-1.5pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$394.51
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 25¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:00SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 13:58PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 31¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 32¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 16¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 33¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 34¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 29¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 21¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 22¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 24¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 22¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.0pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
11- 8¢+7.6pp
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win fewer than 10 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $23.57
- 18¢+1.5pp
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win 22 or more seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $20.38
- 37¢+5.0pp
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 13 and 15 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $5.00
- 49¢+28.7pp
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $130.89
- 25¢-17.5pp
Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 19 and 21 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $5.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $1.9M
- 3¢-1.2pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $640.6K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $558.5K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $453.4K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $372.2K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $346.1K
Market Description
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).