Will the median home value in Miami be less than $1,180,000 on April 30?
Probability
85¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$621.02
Probability (last 7 days)
+42.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 85¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 130.6h
- 13:26SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 131h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:26PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 85¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 83¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 84¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 84¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 84¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 84¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 84¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 84¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 84¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 84¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 85¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 84¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 84¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 84¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 84¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 84¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.5pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 80¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 80¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 79¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 79¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Miami, Florida on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Miami City. The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100, which is the median square footage in Miami. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/23)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).