Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be greater than $439,000 on April 30?
Probability
81¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$85.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+29.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 81¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 103.7h
- 16:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -28.5pp
to 52¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 73¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 77¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 81¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 77¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.0pp
to 74¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 76¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 79¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 81¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
13- 4¢0.0pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be less than $415,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢0.0pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $419,000 and $423,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 6¢0.0pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $427,000 and $431,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-0.5pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $435,000 and $439,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 4¢+0.1pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $415,000 and $419,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $16.11
- 6¢+0.1pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $423,000 and $427,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 5¢-0.1pp
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be between $431,000 and $435,000 on April 30?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $3.8M
- 71¢+4.0pp
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.5M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.4M
- 1¢-1.4pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $1.3M
- 100¢+35.4pp
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $1.1M
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/27)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 30, 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).