Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be less than $1,154,000 on April 30?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$577.96
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $578 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 2¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 2¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 2¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 2¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 2¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 2¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 2¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.8pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).