CryptoMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 26, 2026

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 26?

Probability

20¢

1h

-4.0pp

24h

-15.0pp

24h Vol

$6.4K

Liquidity

$21.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 15pp over 24h

    Now 20¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 20h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $21.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 20h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 20 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 20.3h

    HIGH
  • 19:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 20h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-15.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

Biggest hourly move: +22.0pp at 1d ago (to 40¢).

Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -7.5pp → 21¢
  • 17:00 · -3.0pp → 24¢
  • 15:00 · +6.0pp → 34¢
  • 14:00 · +7.5pp → 36¢
  • 12:00 · +6.5pp → 35¢
  • 11:00 · +14.0pp → 41¢
  • 09:00 · +7.5pp → 36¢
  • 06:00 · +5.0pp → 32¢
  • 05:00 · +7.0pp → 35¢
  • 03:00 · +8.5pp → 35¢
  • 02:00 · +7.0pp → 34¢
  • 00:00 · +4.5pp → 31¢
  • 21:00 · +10.0pp → 36¢
  • 20:00 · +9.0pp → 35¢
  • 1d ago · +11.5pp → 36¢
  • 1d ago · +13.5pp → 36¢
  • 1d ago · +17.5pp → 40¢
  • 1d ago · +21.5pp → 39¢
  • 1d ago · +22.0pp → 40¢
  • 1d ago · +20.5pp → 35¢
  • 1d ago · +20.0pp → 32¢
  • 2d ago · +18.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +19.0pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +16.0pp → 32¢
  • 2d ago · +15.5pp → 36¢
  • 2d ago · +20.0pp → 36¢
  • 2d ago · +17.0pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +22.0pp → 32¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBitcoin price on April 26?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Binance spot pairExchange priceextracted · high
binance.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket