UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires May 1, 2026

Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 1?

Probability

50¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-12.5pp

24h Vol

$26.08

Liquidity

$7.98

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 17:00Apr 29, 2026, 08:02
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 13pp over 24h

    Now 50¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 56h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 95.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  • 04
    Resolution proximity

    Expiry in 56h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 56.0h

    HIGH
  • 08:02Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 56h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-12.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.

Biggest hourly move: +30.5pp at 2d ago (to 48¢).

Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · +10.5pp → 50¢
  • 03:00 · -13.0pp → 35¢
  • 00:00 · -14.0pp → 36¢
  • 22:00 · -11.5pp → 37¢
  • 20:00 · -13.5pp → 38¢
  • 17:00 · -10.5pp → 33¢
  • 12:00 · -9.5pp → 39¢
  • 2d ago · +30.5pp → 48¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 1, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (95.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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