Complicated-Innovation
0x585bef2dc5b122bb8b93dd421f32dd1ca2f4753f
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
125
Open notional
$12.8K
Total PnL
$-17.6K
Realised
$-83.50
Win rate
50%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 125- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.6K
$1.5K
- NO
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
1562 shares @ 67.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.5K
$461.46
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
894 shares @ 93.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$845.14
$8.98
- NO
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
5643 shares @ 63.1¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$705.42
$-2.9K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$632.10
$-1.5K
- NO
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
394 shares @ 32.0¢·now 65.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$256.29
$130.12
- NO
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
262 shares @ 35.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$252.21
$160.64
- YES
No one announced as next James Bond?
270 shares @ 74.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$243.24
$43.24
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
332 shares @ 43.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$214.32
$71.44
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
250 shares @ 63.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$201.24
$43.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5$74.19Jun 15, 08:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.40Jun 15, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Harden win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?$32.51Jun 14, 05:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.39Jun 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.39Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$189.52Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$212.68Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?$145.00Jun 12, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?$261.77Jun 12, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?$1.02Jun 12, 12:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.39Jun 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.73Jun 11, 00:14 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.8KJun 10, 18:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.82Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.82Jun 9, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$1.71Jun 8, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$3.31Jun 8, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$3.31Jun 8, 07:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.82Jun 8, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$1.15Jun 7, 09:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $84.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 08:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.