Will the Rolex Index hit $12,550 (HIGH) by April 30?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$109.21
Liquidity
$613.11
Probability (last 7 days)
+5.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $613 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.7h
- 13:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:18PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 7¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 7¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 7¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.6pp
to 7¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 7¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 7¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 7¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 6¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 6¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.6pp
to 7¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.6pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.8pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.8pp
to 15¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Rolex Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Rolex chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).