Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?
Probability
45¢
1h
+11.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$200.00
Liquidity
$1.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto how much "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekendLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 20.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto how much "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekendLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 116.3h
- 15:40SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
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Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to how much "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 8 - May 10) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 15:40:18 GMT, YES is priced at 45% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +11.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.the-numbers.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$200.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $200.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 20.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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