Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 20 - April 26 be greater than 18,500,000?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 6h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $112 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Expiry in 6h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between April 20, 2026 and April 26, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from April 20, 2026 to April 26, 2026 by May 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.