Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in April?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-20.0pp
24h Vol
$53.24
Liquidity
$2.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 312.4h
- 23:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 312h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:36PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 23¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 23¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 23¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 33¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 33¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 37¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 37¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 36¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 33¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 39¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 40¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 33¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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- 60¢+7.0pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).